11:55 - 3.10.2025

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October 3, Fineko/abc.az. nternational rating agency Fitch expects Azerbaijan's real GDP to grow by 2.5 percent in 2026. This growth will be achieved mainly through development of the non-resource sector of the economy and large public investments.

ABC.AZ reports, quoting Arvind Ramakrishnan, the director of the Sovereigns & Supranationals Division of Fitch Rating, that Fitch forecasts real GDP growth of 2.5 percent in 2026, which is close to Azerbaijan's medium-term growth potential. Growth will occur primarily due to development of the non-resource sector and public investments. At this time, natural gas production will play a supporting role, despite the fact that oil production will continue to decline.

"There are good growth prospects in the information & communication technologies and transport sectors. The main support factors in the transport sector are large-scale public investments and transit operations within the Middle Corridor. Growth of the non-resource sector in recent years has also received a significant boost due to the reconstruction work in Karabakh. But as capital expenditures reach their peak, their impact on growth will decrease," Ramakrishnan emphasized.

He noted that, according to Fitch's expectations, in 2026 the consolidated budget will have surplus of 0.3 percent of GDP (in 2024: 3.6 percent), and in 2027 it will be replaced by small deficit.

"Azerbaijan maintains investment rating with stable outlook at BBB-, which is ensured by stable external balance of the sovereign and a low level of public debt. In addition, Azerbaijan's public financing is supported by the flexibility of financing and solvency due to significant assets of the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) and government deposits," Ramakrishnan added.