10:46 - 10.09.2025

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September 10, Fineko/abc.az. International rating agency Fitch expects global economic growth in 2025 to reach 2.4%—0.2 percentage points higher than its June forecast—thanks to stronger-than-expected second-quarter results.

According to ABC.AZ, the agency, however, notes a slowdown in the US, confirmed by “hard” statistics, while eurozone growth is partly explained by front-loaded purchases amid US tariffs.

Fitch also upgraded its forecasts for China (4.7% vs. 4.2%), the eurozone (1.1% vs. 0.8%), and the US (1.6% vs. 1.5%), but believes global growth will remain below trend. In 2026, global GDP growth is projected at 2.3%. Fitch analysts believe that new US tariffs (average ETR — 16%) will constrain global growth.

Inflationary pressures remain moderate for now, but prices are expected to accelerate, slowing real wage growth and consumption. With a weakening labor market, the Federal Reserve is forecast to cut rates twice in 2025 and three times in 2026.